Bell Tolls: Jay Cutler and The Quarterback Risk
Jay Cutler is like the fancy sports car that depreciated the moment it was driven off the lot.
The Bears signed the strong-armed Cutler to a seven-year, $126.7 million contract extension in January that reflects the rising premiums paid for quarterbacks challenged to handle the most difficult job in sports – and illuminates the risk.
Cutler will be on the bench when the Bears host the Lions on Sunday, sacked by poor performance.
Never mind that his $22.5 million payout this year is the largest in the NFL this year for an offensive player. He's been replaced by a guy, Jimmy Clausen, who hasn't started an NFL game since 2010.
It all makes me wonder what in the world Bears management was thinking when it struck a deal that guaranteed Cutler $54 million.
NFL DRAFT HUB: Latest NFL Draft mock drafts, news, live picks, grades and analysis.
Cutler has never won a conference title, let alone a Super Bowl. It's never all on the quarterback, but the quarterback can affect a team's fortune – where would the Colts be without Andrew Luck? – more than any player on the roster.
In nine NFL seasons, Cutler has had just two winning seasons as a full time starting quarterback.
Yet he was paid as though he possessed Joe Montana credentials.
Paid, essentially, on the basis of a dangerous mix that comingles potential, raw talent and a rising quarterback market.
"Just because you pay him some money, it doesn't mean that he's going to change," Herm Edwards, the former NFL coach-turned-ESPN analyst, told USA TODAY Sports.
Edwards noted that before this season – with Cutler leading the NFL with 18 picks and 24 turnovers -- the $126.7 million man had thrown 183 career TDs and 133 picks.
Said Edwards, "You'd better find a way to help him out if you pay him."
The Bears have an impressive collection of skill-positioned players in Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, but with a sad-sack defense and Cutler's penchant for ugly turnovers, the 5-9 season has been like swimming in quicksand.
What next? With coach Marc Trestman's job figured to be in danger after just two seasons, and GM Phil Emery having much to explain, there's intense buzz suggesting the Bears will shop Cutler – and a big-money contract that could turn off some potential suitors – during the offseason.
If Cutler stays and Trestman goes, the Bears can look at how well Washington has fared with a new coach (Jay Gruden) inheriting a quarterback (Robert Griffin III) that the franchise has invested in so heavily. For Washington, the investment was a bundle of premium draft picks. For Chicago, a pile of cash.
The Bears are hardly alone in betting big.
Interestingly, the other two quarterbacks who got huge contract extensions since last season – Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick – have regressed, too.
The Bengals signed Dalton to a six-year, $96 million extension. Sure, they're in first place in the tough-as-nails AFC North, but Dalton has been so inconsistent while a running game emerges with rookie back Jeremy Hill. And the questions will get even bigger when the playoffs roll around, as Dalton is 0-3 in postseason games.
Kaepernick got a six-year, $114 million deal from the 49ers, but won't be headed back to the playoffs. San Francisco has had an assortment of issues surrounding Kaepernick, asked to throw more from the pocket this season. He's the only NFL starting quarterback not to throw a TD pass this season in the fourth quarter, which underscores the sudden difficulty of winning consistently after three consecutive trips to the NFC title game.
Yet like the Cutler deal, the Bengals and 49ers were driven by market conditions. With a lack of veteran depth, minimal help coming from the draft, a general rush to play young prospects, it's not like these teams can will themselves to find a Russell Wilson at the drop of the hat.
That's why there will be interest in Cutler, as unimpressive as he's been this season. Who will be better on the market? Brian Hoyer? Mark Sanchez?
Still, missing on a big quarterback deal, as the Bears have with Cutler, can hinder a franchise for years.
What's different about the Dalton and Kaepernick deals, though, could set the course for the quarterback market going forward.
Kaepernick's deal averages $19 million but guaranteed just $13 million this year. The annual salaries are guaranteed each April 1, providing the 49ers an exit option if the regression continues.
Dalton's deal, averaging $16 million, guaranteed just $17 million. He, too, will be subject to the team's option to cut ties if they see fit, with minimal cap damage.
These aren't the type of deals for an Aaron Rodgers, but for the jury-remains-out types the structures make sense. Clubs don't have to worry about paying whopping deals to kids straight out of college, but still must be cautioned about committing too heavily after a quarterback has a big year.
Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik, currently an analyst for ESPN, praised the Bengals and 49ers for structuring contracts with their quarterbacks that he considers fair.
The players, committed for six years, might not consider the deals so fair if they quarterback their teams to back-to-back Super Bowls, but for the here and now they serve the purpose.
"The best thing is to build a firewall within the contract to protect the club," Dominik told USA TODAY Sports.
Dominik had a young quarterback not too long ago who had a big year that fueled talk of a big new deal. But the long-term contract never materialized for Josh Freeman, drafted by the Bucs in the first round in 2009. Freeman fizzled, then fell out of favor with since-parted coach Greg Schiano.
Now Freeman, having flopped in subsequent stints with the Vikings and Giants, is out of football.
Yet if Freeman managed to delay his downward spiral for perhaps another year, he might have cashed in with a big deal fueled by the market.
As the Cutler saga shows, when to make the big deal is just as important as if there should be a big deal.
"Ozzie played it right," Dominik said of Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, and how he handled the re-signing of Joe Flacco. "He waited as long as he could. The more information you can have at that position, the better."
Talks between the Ravens and Flacco broke down in 2012. Then Flacco led the Ravens to a championship at the end of that season and was named Super Bowl MVP. His six-year, $120 million extension was worth several million dollars more per year than he sought in the previous contract discussions.
"Even if you have to pay more," Dominik said, "it's worth it when you know you have the right quarterback."
And if it's not the right quarterback, the worst thing to do is to pay more.
Other items of interest as Week 16 rolls on…
Key matchup:Julio Jones vs. Keenan Lewis. Maybe. After sitting out a week with a hip injury, the Falcons star receiver is considered to be a game-time decision for the showdown at New Orleans that could settle the NFC South title. When last seen in a game, on a Monday night in Week 14, Jones shredded the Packers secondary for 11 catches and 259 yards – most receiving yards in a game by an NFL player this season. And that was at Lambeau Field, outdoors and on grass. He should be even faster in the Superdome. Lewis is best suited to try to contain Jones, but the numbers favor the Falcons. The Saints rank 30th in the NFL for passing yards allowed while Jones is second in the league with 1,428 yards on 93 receptions.
Pressure's on:Marc Trestman. Benching Cutler when the Bears are way out of the playoff picture seems like a move for preservation – perhaps with the intent to keep the quarterback healthy in order to trade him during the offseason. In any event, Trestman is banking on Clausen, whose start against Detroit will be his first in four years, and that might not be a good preservation move if Trestman is trying to save his job amid a free-fall of a season. Trestman's not the only one under fire. D-coordinator Mel Tucker is almost certain to be gone while Emery should be vulnerable, too. One person who stays: CEO George McCaskey – but not because of performance.
Rookie watch:Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings quarterback has a homecoming game in his native Miami, and he's spiked ticket sales. Bridgewater will have more than 100 guests on hand, his mother, Rose Murphy, told The St. Paul Pioneer Press. It won't be easy to sparkle against Miami's active defense, but Bridgewater will be game for the challenge. He's played with more consistency than any rookie quarterback, with steady development under the watchful eye of coordinator Norv Turner.
Did you notice? With a pick last weekend, Lions safety Glover Quin tied injured Browns safety Tashaun Gipson for the NFL lead with six interceptions. With Gipson done for the year, Quin is positioned to not only claim the outright crown with two games to go but to also ensure that the six interception total does not go down as a dubious distinction. Since the NFL began tallying pickoffs in 1940, no interception leaders have had fewer than seven interceptions since…1940 – when Ace Parker, Kent Ryan and Don Hutson (playing both ways to complement his greatness as a wideout) shared the interception lead.
Stat's the fact: In another measure of their offensive makeover, the Cowboys have logged more rushes this season out of two- and three-tight end formations (275) than any team in the NFL, according to ESPN research. Yet interestingly, Dallas has a higher average rush (5 yards) when in single tight end sets than in multiple tight end looks (4.4) – which could be a testament to Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten executing new position coach Mike Pope's charge to sustain his blocks longer to become even better