Blind Study: Comparing two Playoff contenders

It's a crowded race for the College Football Playoff.

Two teams, Mississippi State and Florida State, can punch their tickets for a national semifinal by maintaining an unbeaten record. Just after this pair, however, come 16 one-loss teams from various major conferences.

Selecting the nation's most deserving teams falls on the shoulders of the 12-member College Football Playoff selection committee, which will comb through reams and reams of data — strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and more — before settling on the best of the best.

The committee could choose to weigh teams namelessly, comparing two deserving contenders by the numbers, statistics and metrics at their disposal. Let's put two teams battling for positioning in the Playoff race to this blind test.

TEAM A

Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 87th

Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 54th

Number of wins vs. ranked teams: 1

Number of wins vs. current ranked teams: 1

Number of games vs. current ranked teams: 1

Number of top 50 Sagarin teams played: 3

FBS opponents' average Sagarin rating: 81.5

Offense vs. defenses ranked in top 25 in yards per play: 6.13 yards per play (2-0)

Defense vs. offenses ranked in top 25 in yards per play: 5.45 yards per play (1-0)

Scoring efficiency: 16th

TEAM B

Strength of schedule, NCAA method: T-37th

Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 30th

Number of wins vs. ranked teams: 2

Number of wins vs. current ranked teams: 0

Number of games vs. current ranked teams: 1

Number of top 50 Sagarin teams played: 4

FBS opponents' average Sagarin rating: 55.17

Offense vs. defenses ranked in top 25 in yards per play: 4.45 yards per play (1-0)

Defense vs. offenses ranked in top 25 in yards per play: N/A

Scoring efficiency: 27th

*Scoring efficiency is tabulated by subtracting the number of points allowed per play from the number of points scored per play during games against FBS competition.

...

I'll give you a hint: These are both one-loss teams.

You can see how each résumé has its strengths and weaknesses. Team A, for example, has two wins against defenses currently ranked among the top 25 nationally in yards allowed per play. Team A also has a victory against a current ranked team.

Team B does not have a win against a ranked opponent but has played a far more intimidating schedule. This team has the nation's 37th- and 30th-toughest schedule, according to the NCAA method and the Sagarin ratings, respectively. Team A, on the other hand, has played against FBS opponents with an average Sagarin rating of 81.5.

Ready? Here goes:

Team A is Baylor.

Team B is Arizona State.

The Bears, 6-1, can tout an impressive win at home against TCU but lost at West Virginia. Baylor is No. 13 in the initial Playoff poll despite an extremely weak nonconference schedule — SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo.

The Sun Devils, also 6-1, have faced three ranked opponents: UCLA, USC and Stanford. As of this week, however, only UCLA remains among the top 25. Arizona State sits at No. 14 in the Playoff poll.

Though it is one spot behind the Bears in the first poll, Arizona State could move ahead by building upon its already sizable lead in strength of schedule. Beginning Saturday, the Sun Devils must face Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona, and then the winner of the Pac-12 North Division should it win the South Division.